The Economic Factors Behind the Boise Real Estate Market

The Economic Factors Behind the Boise Real Estate Market

 

Hopes soared on reports that the recession was coming to a close as the United States economy posted a healthy 5.9% gain and businesses invested to boost GDP. Boise real estate always depends on the national economic trend, so good news will help out.

It was estimated that Gross Domestic Product would increase at a clip of 5.7%, instead it grew at a rate of 5.9% according to the Commerce Department, based on fourth quarter financial numbers. This is the fastest pace the GDP has grown since the middle of the year in 2003. The fastest quarter was the third quarter which posted a robust 2.2% growth rate. The Boise real estate market will see some benefit from these increases, plus other local market factors.

In the winter period the GDP posted fore-casted growth of 5.7%, which indicates goods and services production totals, according to Reuters. With the recovery seemingly in full swing in the last few months of 2009, our nation seemed to be emerging from the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, but that growth has been stymied somewhat in the first quarter of 2010. With inventory at a recent high, many businesses took advantage of the slowdown to get rid of inventory and purchase needed software and equipment which lifted 4th quarter numbers, despite reduced consumer spending and real estate numbers. This wan't just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.

Stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.9%, rather than the 2.2% pace estimated last month, indicating growth was not being driven by demand. Inventory sales amounts were alarmingly reduced from $33.5 billion to around $16.9 billion in the final quarter. There was a signification reduction from July to September of $139 billion. The change in inventories alone added 3.88 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. As home materials companies liquidated inventory, Boise real estate reaped some benefit from that.

For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4%, the biggest decline since 1946, the department said. In the final three months of 2009, consumer spending increased at a 1.7% rate, rather than the 2% pace reported in January. In the preceding quarter, the federal government "cash for clunkers" program lifted GDP by 2.8%, which was obviously a short term fix for a sector of the economy. In the fourth quarter, consumer spending - which normally accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity -- contributed 1.23 percentage points to GDP. As the national economy contracted, the Boise real estate market contracted right along with it.

With spending on commercial real estate heading down quickly, the fact that the growth happened at all was due mostly because of equipment purchases and investment in software necessary for business growth and improvement. Estimates for business investment came in at 2.9%, but rose dramatically to 6.5%, much higher than expected. Posting a decrease in the three month leading up to that, of 5.9%. With everyone watching the housing markets, projections of 5.7% were down graded to about 5% in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter it had posted a tremendous 18.9%. Both exports and imports grew much stronger than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, leaving a trade gap that contributed 0.3 percentage point to GDP growth, the data showed. As GDP indicates our national economic states, Boise real estate eagerly awaits is significant turn around.